The global mobility divide is widening at an alarming rate, with significant disparities emerging between nations at the top and bottom of the Henley Passport Index. According to the January 2025 edition of the index, global travel freedom has nearly doubled from 58 visa-free destinations in 2006 to 111 in 2025. However, the gap between the most and least mobile nations has reached unprecedented levels.
Dr. Christian H. Kaelin, Chairman of Henley & Partners, highlights this stark contrast: “The global mobility gap between those at the top and bottom of the index is now wider than it has ever been, with top-ranked Singapore able to access a record-breaking 169 more destinations visa-free than Afghanistan.”
This growing disparity is particularly evident in Schengen visa application outcomes. Research conducted in 2024 by Prof. Mehari Taddele Maru reveals that African applicants face significantly higher rejection rates than the global average. These rejection rates, largely driven by passport power and identity-based visa policies, have more than doubled over the past decade, creating substantial barriers to economic mobility for African citizens.
Key Findings in Schengen Visa Rejections
Prof. Mehari Taddele Maru, a part-time professor at the European University Institute and Johns Hopkins University, presents three key findings from a data-driven comparison of Schengen visa rejection rates between African and Asian countries:
1. African Applicants Face Consistently Higher Rejection Rates:
In 2023, despite submitting half as many applications as those from Asia, African applicants were twice as likely to be rejected, with rates 14 percentage points higher than Asian applicants. This disparity underscores the systemic challenges African nationals face in accessing Schengen visas.
2. Beyond Economic Considerations:
While the strength of the applicant’s passport, as measured by the Henley Passport Index and Henley Passport Power Index, and reciprocity agreements are key factors in Schengen visa access, the variation in rejection rates between regions and nationalities goes beyond economic considerations. Discriminatory policies driven by identity-based electoral processes, broad discretionary powers of immigration officials, and visa sanctions against countries deemed uncooperative in readmitting irregular migrants contribute to higher rejection rates for certain nationalities, ultimately reducing legal mobility.
3. Regional Disparities and the Widening Mobility Gap:
The regional disparities between the Global North and Global South, and between Africa and Asia, reveal how visa policies contribute to a rapidly widening mobility gap. In a world where travel freedom is expanding selectively, some nationalities enjoy greater mobility while barriers grow for others.
Schengen Discrimination in NumbersTable. World Top 10 Countries with Highest Schengen Visa Rejection Rates in 2023
The data paints a stark picture of the challenges faced by African applicants. Table 1 illustrates the top 10 countries with the highest Schengen visa rejection rates in 2023. Among these, six are African nations: Comoros leads with a 61.3% rejection rate, followed by Guinea-Bissau at 51%, Ghana at 47.5%, Mali at 46.1%, Sudan at 42.3%, and Senegal at 41.2%. Three Asian countries and a European country complete the list: Pakistan with 49.6%, Syria with 46%, and Bangladesh with 43.3%. Greece, despite being a European Union member and part of the Schengen area, holds the second-highest rejection rate at 56.4%.
These high rejection rates are not merely a reflection of economic disparities. For instance, the UAE, classified as an Asian country by the UN, reported a 22.8% rejection rate in 2023, placing it among Asia’s highest. Notably, over 90% of these rejections were for non-Emirati UAE residents, including applicants from Egypt, India, Jordan, Philippines, Russia, and South Africa. Similarly, Greece recorded a striking 56.4% rejection rate for the 4,894 applications made in the country, most of which were made by non-Greek residents or tourists.
The top 20 countries in Africa and Asia submitted 703,894 applications, representing 6.8% of all Schengen visa applications, of which 40% were rejected. The top 10 African countries faced particularly high rejection rates, with applicants experiencing a 45% rejection rate, higher than the combined Africa–Asia average of 40%.
Analyzing Schengen Visa Rejection Patterns
Several factors explain the variation in rejection rates between regions and countries. The disparities in Schengen visa access can be significantly explained by the Henley Passport Index and Henley Passport Power Index, where the main determinants of visa access are the GDP per capita of the nationality and the bilateral agreements and free movement policies in place among countries. However, the differences observed cannot be justified and fully explained by economic factors and reciprocity agreements alone. Identity politics, far-right political influence, and fears about demographic changes play significant roles, alongside historical migration patterns and cultural diversity concerns.
Migration policy has become a primary tool for addressing domestic political pressures driven by anti-immigration sentiments. Discriminatory policies often emerge from electoral processes dominated by identity politics and the desire to maintain specific socio-cultural demographics in destination countries. Such policies manifest in the discretionary power of immigration officials to assess the credibility of applicants and their intention to return. Additionally, the visa sanctions regime, which imposes longer processing times for countries deemed uncooperative in the return and readmission of nationals staying irregularly in Europe, also contributes to reduced legal mobility and potentially higher rejection rates.
Restrictive Visa Policies Undermine Africa–EU Mobility
Between 2013 and 2023, the number of global Schengen visa applications fell by 40.13% (from 17.3 million to 10.3 million), while visa fees increased by 50% (from EUR 60 to EUR 90), and rejection rates rose by 12%. Contrary to this global trend, as shown in Table 3, African applications increased by 22.41% (from 2.02 to 2.47 million), despite facing consistently higher rejection rates than other regions, particularly Asia.
The data and analysis presented by Prof. Mehari Taddele Maru highlight the systemic discrimination faced by African applicants in the Schengen visa process. The consistently higher rejection rates for African nationals, driven by identity-based policies and discretionary powers of immigration officials, underscore the need for a more equitable and transparent visa application process.
